IMF lowers economic growth projection for Venezuela in 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth projection for Venezuela in 2023, now expecting a 5% increase in GDP, one and a half points lower than its October estimate, according to its Global Economic Outlook report released in April.

The multilateral organization did not detail the reasons for this reduction, but it reflects what various national economists have warned about a slowdown in economic activity in the country, which was already noticeable at the end of 2022.

In addition, the IMF expects the economy to grow by 4.5% in 2024, with the country accumulating four years of precarious economic growth after falling more than 75% between 2014 and 2020.

On the other hand, the estimated figure for 2022 was revised upwards. Six months ago, the IMF said the country would grow 6% at the end of last year, but now indicates that it would have been 8%, still far from the 15% announced by Nicolás Maduro.

The Central Bank of Venezuela has not published details of Venezuela’s economic growth since last year, when it partially reported figures for the first three quarters of 2022.

Regarding inflation, the IMF estimates inflation of 250% for this year (100 points higher than expected in October) and 230% for next year. It also estimated that prices rose by 310.1% in 2022, a figure that is quite close to the calculations of the Venezuelan Finance Observatory (OVF), which reported 305.7%. Without official dissemination yet, the government suggested that the final figure was 234%.

The IMF notes that its data on Venezuela is based on estimates, especially since there is no communication with the country’s government, which has not provided the necessary information as a member state for several years.